Post Mundane · site study · 2026-09-17

200 Baribeau — the approved scheme, priced

282 stacked-town rental homes in nine 3-storey buildings on a 12,703.69 m² former school site in Vanier. The site plan is APPROVED (stamped 2026-08-11) and the file shows mobilization: a construction package issued in May, Building 9 to permit in June. Every verified figure below is read off the approved plan or the register.

The three answers. (1) The rental pencils on the owner's basis: yield on cost 7.53% against a 4.75% cap — +278 bps, $30.8M of value created. (2) The pivot from 92 freehold towns was right: the sale scheme models to $7.7M one-time profit, while the rental holds $83.4M of asset against $52.6M of cost — and keeps the land. (3) Building 9 first is 36 homes for ~$6.7M, producing ~$505,607/yr — the phase that proves the rents before the next eight commit.

The approved scheme, as the money sees it

valuewhere it comes from
Site · park dedicated12,703.69 m² · 1,270.36 m²the approved plan
Homes282 in 9 buildings (36/36/24/24/36/36/18/36/36)the approved plan
Built form3-storey stacked towns, 10 m; 39% coverage, FAR 1.16the approved plan
Parking71 surface stalls for 282 homesexception 2761: 0.2/unit after the first 12 — a proforma gift
Gross floor area14,703 m² (modelled: footprint × 3)plan footprint 4,986 m²
Net rentable12,792 m² · avg 45 m²/home87% efficiency, no corridors (assumed)

Rent it — the current plan

owner basis (land sunk)buying the land today
NOI$3.96M/yr$3.96M/yr
Value @ 4.75%$83.4M$83.4M
All-in cost$52.6M ($186,470/home)$64.9M
Yield on cost7.53% · +278 bps 6.10% · +135 bps
Value created$30.8M (+59%) $18.5M (+28%)

Rent input: $38/m²/mo — held at our cross-study figure even though Vanier 1-beds ask a median $1,999 (Zumper, Aug 2026) which computes ~$40 on a typical 1-bed; the model leans conservative. On the owner's basis, rents can fall 37% before the spread reaches zero — the cushion is the story, and it is why the pivot survives a bad leasing year.

The road not taken — 92 freehold towns for sale

Gross sellout (92 × $675k asking, assumed)$62.1M
Net after 5% selling costs$59.0M
All-in cost$51.3M
One-time profit$7.7M (+15%)

A real one-time profit — but it ends. The rental keeps $83.4M of asset, three times the density on the same dirt, and the land. On these inputs the pivot was the right call, and this table is the page that proves it to a lender.

Phasing — Building 9 goes first, and that is right

Building 9 (36 homes, permit filed June 2026) is ~13% of the scheme: ~$6.7M to build, ~$505,607/yr of NOI, ~$10.6M of value. It proves Vanier rents on 36 doors before the other 246 commit — and each subsequent building reprices on evidence, not forecast.

Honesty box

14 verified · 2 modelled · 16 assumed inputs — every one carries its source in the run file. The big assumptions: the $2,350/m² stacked-town build rate (replace from the Altus low-rise page), the $2.5M site-works allowance (Novatech's approved servicing set supports a real take-off), the 87% efficiency (the elevations support a unit-schedule count), his land basis (his number, not ours). Nothing here is advice; it is analysis of public records, built to be checked.

Post Mundane · generated by tools/lead-gen/bridges/baribeau_run.py · engine: journey_feasibility (same model as the 287 Loretta study and the 638-lot register scan)